Hi.
This is Dr. Detecto’s daughter IRL. I am aware my dad posted on several sites about the Mariners but I am not very familiar with this website and probably will not be logging in again after this.
I regret to inform you that my dad passed away five days ago from a five year battle with cancer, on the 19th. There will be no more posts from Dr. Detecto.
We miss him very much, and wish all the readers on this blog nothing but the best.
Thank you for understanding.
ANTHONY SWARZAK
HQ — only $15 digital download at BaseballHQ.com — sez,
Missed 14 weeks to two different injuries (oblique, shoulder). In resulting short sample, control slipped but FpK history gives hope for recovery. While he appeared to hold Dom gains, SwK drop suggests 2017’s surprise breakout is likely an outlier. Skills and age make him a fairly average bullpen arm.
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In other words, he had good excuses for 2018, as pitchers often do. BUT on the other hand don’t take his star-making 2017 — 10.6 strikeouts, 2+ walks — as the gospel either.
At the M’s site you get a good look at his nice-lookin’ change-slider, very good arm action, and then 42 different camera angles on Dee Gordon scooping up a ground ball.
Leaving us where? The two previous years, 2015-16, he’d racked up 8K’s per nine innings and stayed at 2+ BB. Then the star year. Then the injury year.
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Swarzak throws a 55-45 mix of sliders and fastballs, going to 93 on the fastballs. The slider’s his money pitch, with the arm action looking plus. So yeah, sounds like the profile of an MLB(TM) average-solid pitcher so far. The man did string three long years’ worth of performance and scored an $8M per year contract.
If you ever figger this ‘pen out YOU let US know… odd thing though, it’s kind of the anti-Mariner bullpen. Everything they try [invert it now] WORKS.
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FANTASY BASEBALL PRINCIPLE
One year Dr. D played his BABVA kids into a pretty tough league and decided to experiment with this principle: TAKE EVERYBODY WHO WAS REALLY GREAT TWO YEARS AGO, AND FELL OFF LAST YEAR.
My reasoning: fans are fickle. That’s the Moneyball we’ll use.
As we recall it worked very well. We figured there would be scads of Jay Bruces out there, 32 homers and 94 RBI their normal level of performance, who slipped on the ice in 2018 and then got blown off, dismissed, by the kindsa fans who spend their winters arguing “Harper or Machado?”
Let’s see if we can count up the 2019 Mariners who were big TWO years ago and forgotten LAST year:
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1) Jay Bruce – 29 and 36 homers with 176 RBI in 2016-17; out half the year last year
2) Dee Gordon – .308, 60 SB’s two years ago. Long forgotten BABVA target on draft day
3) Ryon Healy* – sort of repeated his 2017, that and his positional woes costing him some luster with the sabes
4) Domingo Santana – 30 jacks, 85 ribbies two years ago. Pushed out of a starting job last year. Bingo
5) Edwin Encarnacion* – Batting EYE dropped off a lot at age 35, but LEADS the majors in homers since 2012 (that’s LEADS). Didn’t even drop off in homers last year.
6) Yusei Kikuchi* – Had his Bob Gibson 1+ ERA season …. TWO years ago.
7) Anthony Swarzak and half the bullpen
8) Tim Beckham
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Bruce, Gordon, Beckham, and Santana would have been huge draft-day heists. So that is fully half the lineup scored due to the 2-year principle. The other three guys, not counting the bullpen as a “guy,” mighta fallen quite a bit also. You think Jerry is becoming a two-years-ago man, lookin’ past the camoflage of a snakebitten last season? :- )
Well. It is Workin’. Rat now.
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MARCO GONZALEZ
The only 3-win pitcher in baseball.
There’s only ONE other 2-win pitcher in the AL, that being Mike Fiers. Beaten by Marco on Opening Day.
Sitting at 3-0, 3.20 with a 5.03 / 1.37 / 0.92 slash line thus far. One plus walks; needs to get the K’s up of course and will do so. For whatever reason his curve has been very ineffective, 7+ runs per 100, and it has actually looked that bad. The fastball and cutter have raked in nice profits and the change has been hit a little. Batters sitting back on their heels against him?
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DANIEL VOGELBACH
You know how you hadda be there for some jokes? … that was true of the joke of ‘Bach’s early-game double. WHAT a TEE shot. Low, low liner the RF raced over and …. it carried carried carried. Looked soo sweet.
Then the GWHR … that one looked like you hadda be watching on TV :- )
Lessee, where does that leave his stats after the early slow start … .286/.500/.857 with a 2:3 EYE in 10 plate appearances. Anybody else in favor of giving the 1B-DH-LF guys a little restage?
BABVA,
Dr D
BEST READ
If the Mariners have just pole-axed another hapless enemy, and you’re looking for reading material of over-the-fold quality, you can do worse than to read the last night’s Slack roundtable. It’ll be chock-full of Denizens’ insights, ideas and impressions of the game in real time.
I don’t know how to direct you to it; somebody in the comments will bail me out. On a smartphone, though, you download SlackChat and then simply search Seattle Sports Insider or somesuch. One a’ you Slackers :- ) finish up here.
(Sez Andrew: Here’s the slack link: https://seattlesportsinsider.slack.com )
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WEIRD SCHEDULING
No game on Wednesday? … ?! Since when? Oh, and none on Thursday, either, due to the Doppler. So Kikuchi goes Friday, and that counts as his “Opener Game” for April. Tell JeDi we said so.
The Orcs limped home from the brutal beating we gave them and have gone 5-1 since. They brushed aside the pesky rodents 3-1 and are now 2-0 in a four-gamer vs Boston.
On April Fools’ Day they used Aaron Brooks’ (?? busted in possession of a 7-odd career ERA) two-hit, 6-K shutout* to mangle David Price 7-0 despite Price’s own nine strikeouts. Last night they sent Chris Sale to an Orcish end, 8″ handled hatchets no doubt, in a 1-0 win. Mike Fiers and the bullpen twirled the shutout. Boston sits at 1-5 despite the legendary anti-orc’ish HOF starter weapons they wield.
Mariners are 7-1. Pirates are 1-2.
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CONOR SADZEK
Would *not* be an example of a 2-years-ago man because he didn’t really have any years, did he? This Greg Johns article covers the story quite sufficiently.
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TIM BECKHAM
“Fangraphs has an article up today arguing that a certain Mariner, currently on an early-season hot streak, is hot because he has mastered his craft.” There, never thought I’d type that sentence.
Their argument:
1. 2018 had a core injury he was fighting against.
2. He has had a good FIVE weeks, if you go back and look at his September 2018.
3. Since 2017 he has been more selective, letting pitchers’ pitches go by and “stalking” his power pitch
4. His chase rate is wayyyyyy down
5. He was former 1-1 pick
Hmmmmmmmmm. So then what is Beckham’s upside scenario? I guess to take 2017’s numbers (.280/.330/450 with 3.5 WAR) and go from there. Looks like Mo Dawg saw this one coming down sixth Avenue.
Slap me silly. Everywhere you look, it’s fun stuff to write about.
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BABVA,
Dr D
We’ve alerted you to Brent Stecker’s excellence before. He’s got yet another great read up this morning. Go hit that, then come back for Dr. D’s reactions:
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1. Mitch Haniger gets recognition this year.
… I know what he means; he has the big 32-homer, 117-RBI year that cements him as a franchise player. I can relate. But my reaction to baseball industrywide, with all the “Hanger is better than Harper” shtick, is that I wonder whether you can get so underrated you’re overrated.
If Haniger is Dwight Evans that’s plenty nuff for Dr. D. I’ll take the under on his repeating 2018, by a little bit, but that’s still a 4+ WAR player and a great guy to represent your franchise.
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2. Kikuchi has the novelty advantage.
I’ll see anybody and raaiiiiise on this factor. Novelty is one thing, but when it’s novelty plus a Cy Young game fully grown-up?
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3. Domingo HR’s.
SSI Denizens way ahead’a me on this one. Lessee, first three games doesn’t he have two sizzled HR’s and two hard-hit doubles?
I’m starting to wonder about lineup synergy, about no rest for the pitchers. LOL. Well, that’s what three games will do for yer.
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4. “Quote machine” Mallex Smith. … okay :: blinks ::
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5. Marco being a #1 starter, growing into “Ace Status” in terms of his pitchability. Quoting Brent just a bit:
Something that really jumped out to me over the offseason was an interview Gonzales had on 710 ESPN Seattle’s Hot Stove in January, where he talked about why being on the same pitching staff as some crafty veterans has helped him grow.
“That was the culmination of really learning from other guys – guys like Wade LeBlanc, James Paxton, and probably the most important guy that people may not know is Mike Leake,” Gonzales said about his strong 2018 campaign. “(Leake is) a guy that just has balance and feel for all of his pitches. Being able to watch a Mike Leake bullpen every week, those are things that I really learned from and put into my own game.
“You learn how to kinda push and pull the hitters in and off the plate and keep guys off balance, and I learned how my pitches kind of work like that, which pitches work with each other and which pitches don’t. … Putting that all together helped me put together a strong balance and repertoire to attack hitters.”
6. Gerson Bautista the next* Edwin Diaz?
Nice little .gif and quotes to go with the bullet point. I’m surprised to find three RP’s who encourage me early: Strickland, Rosscub, Gearrin. That’s just “show encouraging signs.”
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7. Dee Gordon back to himself again.
8. Road Trips to Cheney. …. Brent is talking about being able to drive down I-90 and see Shed Long, J.P. Crawford, Braden Bishop, Erik Swanson, Justus Sheffield & Co.
9. Justus Sheffield.
If we had an office pool on when he’d be up, what would be the quickest youse guys would take? I’m hoping six weeks, to accommodate Felix early, but there’s no real reason for more than two weeks, is there?
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10. Trades.
If this ballclub kept piling up wins, then do we get an RP or two, do you think? …. Gimme one real 8th-inning stud and gimme a break on Gerson Bautista, and I’m down to see what happens here. Granted, Beane’s recipe is watch for 2 months first? First three days have seen like 2 months, as far as the HR rationing has gone :- )
BABVA,
Dr D
Apr 15, 2017; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
This post is a re-print from Seattle Sports Insider. You can find these posts, and an archive many times larger, at that site.
https://seattlesportsinsider.com/?q=blogs/postgame/5-back-leg-specials
At the previous post on D-O-V we have the graphix to support this post. Pictures are a bit wonky here. You can find the locations of the 5* back-leg specials the Mariners hit Tuesday.
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Q. Was Sale just lousy on Thursday?
A. In my opinion he had a normal game. He was sitting 93-95 mph; his pitch mix was 32-20-31; Chris Sale is Chris Sale. Were you expecting to come in and score 12?
Visually he looked about a 4-5 on a Chris Sale scale, which is to say a Randy Johnson scale, which is to say he was a whale of a lot better than you, me, or our home team pitchahs.
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BECKHAM vs SALE IP 2
This sequence went CHANGE … FASTBALL … CHANGE … then pitch #4 on the diagram is a 93.4 mph, up-and-in fastball. Jam pitch above the hands.
At this Mariners page there’s a convenient video link to all 5 homers last night. As we’ve always sermonized :- ) there is a difference between (1) a popup/long fly ball that is an HR/F roll of the dice, and (2) a pitch where the batter sets his back foot and launches the ball into the power alley with a golf swing. Beckham’s were the latter.
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BECKHAM vs SALE IP 3
A second Back Leg Special, this one off the batter’s eye (!) and a second bat flip. It was a first-pitch fastball up, 92.1 MPH. True that you have to be careful about up-and-outside but 92 MPH from Chris Sale is another conversation when you’re dealing with the “tunnelling” on his slider.
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ENCARNACION vs SALE IP 3
A blast to straightaway center. And a great 7-pitch AB, going
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HEALY vs RP, IP 5
Two straight curveballs, one in, one out. Jerked over the LF wall like a 3-iron. OK, maybe this one’s not quite a BLS. If you want to use HR/F to argue it coulda been just a double, then fine. The ball was still barrelled up, pulverized, and into the power zone at a premium launch angle.
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DOMINGO vs RP, IP 7
Sequence: CURVE down middle 0-1 … Fastball on black, high … Fastball high … Curve on knees 2-2 … Curve juuuuust inside for a ball but WHOOOOOPS Domingo swung at the ball and check the video if you want to know what we mean by Back Leg Special. The little bit of extra load, the extra lift, the intentioned spray direction, etc.
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Q. Are the Mariners going to average 8.7 runs per game and thereby exceed 1,400 this season?
A. Maybe the league will hold them to 1,200 or so. But it’s pretty sweet to see Healy and Beckham(and Domingo for that matter) laying down the artillery fire that they are.
I also enjoyed the Smith double where the CF took the ball off the wall, fired it back in to 2B, the camera shows…. NOTHING on second? A few seconds later, they figured out where to point the camera :- )
The ballclub netted another 2 doubles, a triple, and 8 base hits are very respectable in a Sale game.
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Q. How’d Marco do?
A. B- in a vacuum; the curve wasn’t dangerous and the whole game was a FB-cutterfest. Consider the enemy and his game management, A-.
Hope to do another post during the day but … preferable would be a 12-point bullet list of addenda, best/worst things in the game. Posted in the comments below :- )
BABVA,
Dr D
From the home opener vs Boston. Here are the graphix to go with the prose at SSI:
Beckham vs Sale, IP 2
Beckham vs Sale, IP 3
EE vs Sale, IP 3
Healy vs Velazquez, IP 5
Domingo vs Thornbird, IP 7
Very interesting light bulb at Hey Bill:
Is there a pitcher who has demonstrated such a willingness to “throw any pitch at any time” that the usual expectations about what pitch was likely to come next have successfully been thwarted, in the minds of batters? Or is this kind of thing actually common among top-flight pitchers?
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[Dr. D again] We discussed this very thing about this very dude, Shaun Marcum, a few years back when the M’s were considering him. He had virtually a 25-25-25-25 mix which was great but…
The key about the 2nd part of it was the “ON ANY COUNT” time. The paradigm collapses if you start with fastballs and finish with off speed stuff.
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The Mariners have 3 pitchers who are loosely in this paradigm:
Marco Gonzalez – you’ll hear us talking about a 30-30-30-15 ratio for him. His actual ratio is 33-22-23-21. As far as whether he’ll throw a changeup on 0-0, I’d give him a B-.
Wade LeBlanc – 36-9-30-25. Will he throw a cutter or a changeup on 1-0? I’ll give him an A-.
Mike Leake – 38-10-17-22-12, with that being FB-Curve-CH-Cut-Slider. Pitch Mix, C+.
You think Felix Hernandez could go Shaun Marcum the next few years?
BABVA,
Dr D
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PS SSI is down this week and as soon as we have it back up, it’ll be back to shtick as usual :- )
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The 2-1 loss in Oakland stings but …. supposing a week ago I offered you a 5-2 trip to Houston and Oakland. With Houston rolling out Verlander, Cole, Morton, and Keuchel. Road trip: a team that is cookin’. Do you buy Mojo’s idea that the Felix demotion removed the malaise that went with a poor start every 5 days?
Statistically, the last two weeks the M’s have some guys who are bringin’ it. All stats are over the last 14 days:
Edwin Diaz is of course lightin’ it up as always. He’s got 6 games in the last two weeks, 6 IP naturally, with a 19:0 CTL per 9 innings. Un-be-leev-able. His 47 saves project to 63.4 at this point.
I owe yer a post a week on D-O-V, if you can call hobby writing that :- ), for sailing over the $150/month goalpost. Unfortunately a date with the hospital gave me a medical week so am running behind.
Probably this week we won’t have time to catch up, but that means we owe you one. Next week two posts. And thx for your patience!
Warmly,
Jeff
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Matt Souders (SABRMatt) just went upper deck, 2nd-to-last-row, with a #11/#24 sponsorship ($20 clams per month). Many thanks Matty. Now if we can just get you to front-page a coupla saber columns here and there :- )
Doug Harper became a TOR / #3 sponsor (editing his level from $2 to $5) and this leaves us at $158 per month, easily over our 1 DOV/post/week thank you pledge. We’re batting .395 on our $400 per month goal.
It’s not only possible that I’ve forgotten somebody along the way, but I’d be amazed if I didn’t. Please email me (jeffclarke238 at comcast.net) and we’ll rectify.
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More importantly, we’re saving D-O-V! Even if the M’s don’t apparently know how to save their offense. Poor Cameron Maybin. Joins a new ball club and hits three bullets into enemy mitts before he even learns their names.
Compared to what we did have, I do like Span in LF and Maybin in CF. Supposedly 10 days until Robby takes back the 3 slot. And hopefully a tight turn around the bend in September.
The pesky rodent Orcs won another one 1-0, which doesn’t by any means put Dr. D off. Yet. It’s called a “pennant race” and we’re -1.5 back. These races tend to have twists and turns and hopefully there are more of the latter than the former for us remaining.
Doug and especially Matt, thanks a bunch! You’re keeping the Think Tank solid here, dudes.
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Many thanks to those who have supported SSI/DOV in its fledgling efforts to stay alive. If you’d like to join the ownership group here is the link.
BABVA,
Dr D
Detect O Vision Mainframe 