Maybin vs Heredia

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NEWEST SPONSOR

Keith Tymchuck (Moe Dog) clocks in at James Paxton / Zeus speeds on the SSI/DOV support meter, 97 MPH with an easy motion.  Thank you Keith!

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GRAPHICS

Heredia’s defense at a glance.  The darker the green, the lower the catch probability:

Maybin’s defense at a glance.  Again, the darker green, the tougher the catch.

Thanky kindly for opening the 2nd winder.  And thanks again Keith!

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Thanks so much to those who have supported SSI/DOV in its fledgling efforts to stay alive.  If you’d like to join the ownership group here is the link.  And we always appreciate the potatoes in the hobo pot, the comments that keep the Think Tank read going for everybody.

BABVA,

Dr D

 

Baseball Musings (Seattle Version)

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EXTRA OUTS

At Bill James Online there was a Hey Bill that changed my paradigm and turned on a light bulb for me.  Maybe it will for you also:

Hey Bill  

Announcers frequently say after a player makes an error, “well, you can’t give a good team 4 or 5 outs in an inning. They’ll really make you pay …”  

and us common folk sitting at home think, “yeah, that sounds pretty truthy..”  

Has this been quantified?  

For example if in 2018 an average team scores 0.5 runs if given 3 outs, they will score xxx runs if an error is committed at some point in the inning (4 outs) and yyy runs if 2 errors are committed in the inning (5 outs). I realize there are different types of errors (throwing error giving runner 2nd vs error that turns expected out into a baserunner), but I imagine that complicates things too much.  

apologize if this has been covered many times before, if it has I don’t remember seeing it  

Asked by: sprox

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Answered: 7/28/2018

 In TV announcer terms it is stated so broadly that it is difficult to study.   But think about it this way.   

In traditional baseball–that is, baseball before the three-true-outcomes era–in traditional baseball runs are created by COMBINATIONS of events.   Suppose that teams had 28 outs in a game instead of 27, but suppose that they played 14 innings of 2 outs each, rather than 9 innings of 3 outs each.  The result would be many fewer runs scored, because a larger percentage of the run-creation events would be isolated from other run-creation events, and a smaller percentage would be joined to other run-creation events.   If you went to 7 innings of 4 outs each, there would be only one more out, but there would be many more runs because the ratio of runs scored to runners left on base would increase.  

The ratio of run events to runs increases geometrically, not arithmetically.   So if you give a team an extra out, it doesn’t add 33% to their potential runs in the inning, but something more than 33%–maybe 40% or 45% or 50%.   To know EXACTLY what it is you would have to frame the statement more carefully.  

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On Sunday, there was a play in which a ball fell about 1 foot in front of a jogging Mitch Haniger in CF.  Well, he wasn’t jogging I’m sure, but if you saw the play you might have had the same impression.  There’s nothing wrong with an offense-first lineup, but this particular play was egregious.

Marc-O wound up fanning the next guy on a deadfish change, and popping the next guy up on a curve.  But that put a new light on it for me — the idea of 7×4 innings, vs 14×2 innings.

It’s a really, really big deal when a team give up an extra out – or takes one away, with a baserunner kill.

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CUT FASTBALLS

It’s a cool term but it doesn’t really teach us much about what’s going on.  Between “curve” and “fastball” there used to be “slider;” now between “slider” and “fastball” there’s “cut fastball.”  I kind of wish they would use the term “power slider” rather than cutter.

Particular with Marc-O, because Sunday in the absence of his curve (only 12 pitches all day!) he used his power slider 28 times at a 7″ glove side break and a full 87.0 MPH velocity.

Any idea why they don’t call them hyper-power sliders?  :- )   Anyway, that’s what saved Marc-O’s bacon Sunday.  He’s got a lot of ways to save his own bacon.

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GRATUITOUS BASEBALL STAT

Mitch Haniger is swinging at only 25.7% of pitches outside the zone, and when he does, it’s often with two strikes and with an “emergency” swing that takes the ball out of the catcher’s mitt…. into right field.  He did this Sunday again.

Before the season started, I was thinking Jason Heyward, or however you spell his name — with an emphasis on bases added through defense and bases.  But the 30-100 type bat has me thinking the Denizen was on track who suggested Dewey Evans.  I remember him (later) for his 30-100 and 65 walks, which is tracking Haniger’s 49 (and counting) walks rather nicely.  That’s a whale of a classy comp somebody came up with.  I know I’d take it.

BABVA,

Dr D

Newest Sponsors, 7.29.18

Many thanks to our three newest sponsors who pushed us over Line One:

Brian Geddes chipped in as a TOR/#3 sponsor …

Douglas Harper became a new D-O-V sponsor on Patreon …

and Lawrence Barton became a level Zeus / Paxton sponsor!  Wow!  Thanks Larry!  May we call you Larry?  ;- )

This all leaves us at $145 per month after a week or so, which is most definitely 150-ish :- ) so starting next week, an “extra” post each week in this space.  Thanks to all who contributed !

First goal hit:  a post a week on D-O-V (beyond what normally occurs on SSI; this week that was “naturally” 5 articles because my day job went way overtime.  Hopefully we’ll get that 6th one up Sunday).  As a percentage, that’s over 36% of what we’re shooting for to establish the security of SSI/DOV.

So starting next week, watch this space :- )

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If you enjoy the Think Tank and crave its sur-vival and thr-ival, you may wish to check out Dr. D’s fundraising shtick.  Or if you know you’re ready to join the Ownership Committee, here’s a direct link to the sponsorship page.  Thanks amigos!

Warmly,

Jeff

New Sponsors

Usually in this space we put some  Gratuitous Baseball Shtick but, in this case, we’re just going with the new sponsors…. don’t want to get behind on listing them :- ) and in addition, next set of sponsors comes with an announcement!

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NEW SPONSORS

Thanks to Mike Elliott (fungineer) who is a JAMES PAXTON / ZEUS level Patreon.  Wow.  Way to go upper-tank Mike.

Also big thanks to Dane Sandquist who rang the bell to the tune of a TOR Starter level, $5/month.  These two gentlemen put us at $130 per month, all this coming in the first week, only a sponsor or two shy of “150-ish” level support which locks Dr. D into a freebie extra DOV article each week.

Thanks to all who are chipping in!  and once again a big thanks to David Sipe who set the record at the Retired Number Level #24/#11 level at $20.

M’s LAST TWO WEEKS

The M’s have been locked down to 0-3 runs in 10 of their last 13 games, during which they’ve won (perhaps remarkably) 4 against 9 losses.

Boomstick is batting .196 for the month of July with 1 XBH and 6 RBI.  The point of this being, Gentle Reader, that the M’s are in a slump, not that Nelson Cruz is a .196 hitter.  Other culprits the last 2 weeks:

.233/281/.300 = Jean Segura

.167/.219/.233 = Kyle Seager

.217/.438 :- ) / .217 = Mitch Haniger

.111/.158/.167 = Guillermo Heredia

Earl used to say that when you’re in a slump like this, you load the lineup with your bats, even at the expense of defense.  Like, Gamel in RF and Haniger in CF.  But, to each his own.

BABVA,

Dr D

NEWEST SPONSORS!

We had two new TOR / #3 SP sponsors on Tuesday!  Both Dave Knowles and Peter Anderson pushed us dangerously close to the “150-ish” level at which we committed to an extra post per week on D-O-V.  In my mind I had something like $135 as 150-ish, so looks like that’s coming up shortly.  Maybe by end of week shortly?

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CLARIFICATION

The number of posts per week at SSI has always been a little bit variable.  If I work overtime at my day job, then I write maybe 4 posts that week instead of 6, and of course my compensation varies with that.

When we say “extra” posts at D-O-V we are referring to posts beyond what our normal day job allows us to write.  So, for example, if we write 5+1 posts at SSI and DOV, then the +1 at DOV is always “extra” and takes the place of a compensated post that I would have written at SSI.

Also, there will be weeks when I’m traveling or whatever and write at neither place very much.  What we mean by “at $150 per month sponsorship” we’ll write an extra post at D-O-V, that’s exactly what it will always mean, a post that wouldn’t have appeared except for our gentlemen’s agreement.

Not that I expect the 6 posts at SSI to vary much; I don’t.  But we thought it would be good to clarify in case anybody was expecting a hard-and-fast return for their sponsorship.

Thought we better spell that out before we got too far in :- ) and if that leads anybody to wanting a refund back, well, of course.  Refunds are for any reason or no reason.  Thanks amigos!

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GRATUTITOUS BASEBALL SHTICK

Brent Stecker always delivers the goods on baseball report-ajj, and this time he’s got some trade deadline spec of his own.  He’s got three sections, one leading off with Zach Britton, so knock herself out.

Ever since the ’87* Brew started off 35-5 with Dan Plesac, Dr. D has had a thing for hard-throwing lefty closers.  Only question is how the M’s would stack these studs up against one another.

Enjoy,

Jeff

M’s 8, ChiSox 2

GRATUITOUS BASEBALL SHTICK

Alex Colome is capable of throwing his slider a ridiculous 93 miles an hour, but Sunday night he was throwing it in 90-91 and it was a far better pitch. It’s swerved and dove like a swallow after a worm, reminding Dr. D of Gaylord Perry’s hard fastball in his prime.  He mixes them at a 45-55 rate which helps explain why his 47 saves LED baseball last year

If you hadn’t been keeping track, Colome runs a nice reliable 8.3 / 2.5 / 1.5 slash line for us.  His earliest free agency is 2021 and I’m just wondering if they can keep the man happy for four years.

NEWEST SPONSORS!

Which is getting to be my fave part of the night ;- )

New sponsors include John Barnett, as well as TOR Sponsors David Kalberer (thanks Dave!) and Benjamin Krall and “JA,” … whoops!  “JA” just edited his pledge to JAMES PAXTON ZEUS level $9 per month.  Thanks so much JA!

Which leaves us over 27% of the way to goal after just 3 days.  Dan (a pro fundraiser in politics) advised patience, that it’s not a one-week thing or one-month thing.  We are off to a fast start though and you have our thanks!

Three weeks ago I thought we were done here, and as it turns out we could be more vibrant than ever.

If you enjoy this article and prefer to see the Think Tank sur-vive and thr-ive, you may wish to check out Dr. D’s fundraising shtick.  Or if you know you’re ready to join the Ownership Committee, here’s a direct link to the sponsorship page.  Thanks amigos!

Warmly,

Jeff

 

Newest to the Ownership Committee!

NEW SPONSORS

Heartfelt thanks to our new sponsors, including special thanks to James Merkle who is a James Paxton/Zeus-level sponsor.  Also new to the Ownership Committee are TJM/Terry, Brent Olsen, and TOR starter Robert B. Andrews.  We are close to 25% to our goal after just a day or two.  Thanks guys!  :- )

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Gratuitous Baseball Stat:  they’ve got the M’s as 45-0 in Edwin Diaz’ appearances.  Question in my mind is becoming whether he’s the best closer in BASEBALL.

They reported on TV that of his 37 saves, 20 are of the “Tough Save” variety, holding 1-run leads.  The #2 man in baseball, Craig Kimbrel, isn’t far behind at …. 11 Tough Saves.

You’re looking for a reason the M’s are outperforming Pythag, there y’go amigo-O.

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A cubicle down [V V V] is the model that Dan and I came up with.  If you enjoy this article and the Think Tank, you may wish to check out Dr. D’s fundraising shtick.  Or if you know you’re ready to join the Ownership Committee, here’s a direct link to the sponsorship page.  Thanks amigos!

Enjoy,

Dr D

We Settled on a Model

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HOW WE’LL GET IT DONE!

Feeling much better!  And per Dan’s direction, we’ve settled on a business model to assure continued Dr. D shtick.   Just about ready to launch!  And I think you’ll like it very much.

We will have (3-)6 articles per week on SSI that are totally free, as they have been – thanks to Klat.  (Sorry for those int’l users having problems.  We’ll copy-and-paste now and then on request.)

Then here on D-O-V we will have additional content as a “thank you!” for sponsors.  No gate; anyone can read.  I never did like the idea of a “gate” to keep people out.  This will be like a “gentleman’s agreement” as Dan put it.  Keeps things as friendly as we like them on D-O-V.

What it will mean is a bit of promotion.   At the bottom of each post we’ll ask for a redirect over to Patreon.  For those who have already set up recurring donations, you can simply ignore; no problem.  Dan pointed out that the recurring model actually means less work for the users; sign up once and you’re done.

If we hit $150(-ish!) per month support, I’ll put a guaranteed 1 post per week on D-O-V.  If we hit $300/month, I’ll put up 2 posts per week.  At $450 per month we’ll make it 3, and so on.  (Not a bad deal compared to what the MSM writers do, y’think? :- )  )

And, of course, besides the bonus material, you are sponsoring our work on SSI.  Many thanks for doing so.

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HOW TO DONATE

Let’s give it a try!  :- )  Ready to help?  Here is the donation page.   How about considering a $1 or $5 or $10 monthly donation to the Think Tank?  If there’s much of a surge at all we’ll put two lengthy posts in here immediately.  And Here is my top-page Patreon link.

Your sponsorship helps assure continued Dr. D shtick and Think Tank discussion.   Thanks so much!

A pledge is a recurring donation taken out of your account on the 1st of each month. It’s easy to cancel, or change your support level, any time.

Dr. D is hoping to build up, over the course of a few months, to $400 or $450 per month.  Then we’re ‘done’ so to speak.

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NEW SPONSORS!

Thanks to David Sipe who is donating $20 per month.  WOW.  Way to go bonkers David :- )

Thanks to Ryan Duke, Leif Thompson, “sayward,” and Rick Michels, donating $9-10 per month.  Big time guys.  Appreciate it.

Thanks to Isaac Taylor, Jordan Husband, and David LaDow at $5-6 per month.  Really pushing us up there amigos.  Gracias.

And thanks to Dan too!, who added $5 per month to his unbelievable, step-by-step-by-painstaking-step help in setting us all up now.

Best,

Jeff

PS I think it had Leif and sayward as recurring donors, but am still figuring it out.  Perhaps their donations were single shots, which is also awesome.  My apologies for any errors.

Quick Update

Haven’t forgotten D-O-V.  (Hope and am guessing that international users can now get on SSI?)  It’s just health issues have left me barely able to get in the 6 articles/week on SSI for the moment.

Gingerly, I was planning on NO GATES for D-O-V but to ask for voluntary contributions on Patreon – and to tie “extra” articles on D-O-V to contribution levels.  e.g., at $200/month, 1 extra article/week, at $400, 2 articles/week, etc.  What do you think of that idea?  I was never thrilled with the idea of gates or paywalls anyhow.

If you’re not getting through to SSI, yell and scream and we’ll get some copy-and-paste up for you :- )

Warmly,

Jeff

 

https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1833095

Off Divish’s Twitterfeed

Enjoy,

Dr D