Dr. D’s mirror image driving everybody crazy. Not least, himself
.
The Dodgers will still pay you to take Andre Ethier. Well, maybe they won’t pay you as much now that Kemp’s gone, but they still need some place for him or Scott Van Slyke. Los Angeles isn’t voting in favor of the DH; they’re too busy telling you that Edgar doesn’t have enough “volume stats” to overcome his DH position. And Ethier is getting more and more upset with his playing time and subsequent hitting travails.
As you know, Dr. D hungers for new-blown snow untrod by other wannabe’s. In this case he found some surprisingly fresh powder. Not that he’s sure he wants to track it into the lab …
Says Shandler, Andre Ethier is just like Charlie Brown’s scraggly 3-foot Xmas tree — it need only be nurtured by the 550-AB warmth of Linus’ blanket at the base, and look again: a lush 12-footer with all the trimmings. Give Andre a job and he’ll pop right back to 5.4 runs per game, no?
Except for in 2014, Ethier ran 360’ish OBP’s with nice gap power. Then the traffic jam in the LA outfield took him out of rhythm. May be a more enticing place to park the bus than he’s given credit for. You guys keep saying, “OBP! OBP!” This would be the sneaky way to try to grab it. Throw out 2014 and Ethier’s got the same RC/27 as Nelson Cruz, Melky Cabrera, and Kyle Seager.
Shandler sez: Check it out. Ethier has always posted his best OPS+ levels when he’s had the most playing time. Maybe his lousy performance in 2014 was a chicken-and-egg thing against his not having a role.
Latest Twitterage suggests Ethier at 50% salary for a Mariner bullpen. This might be okay, if we had any bullpens to spare, but we need at least a couple of them ourselves. Oh, a Mariner RELIEVER you say. Yoervis Medina has a Doberman look and bark. Here, kitty kitty …
Yeah, yeah, no one cares. It’s not like Ethier’s career string of .365 OBP’s happened last month. Fine; Dr. D is making a list 15 players long here, not selling Andre Ethier as the next Bobby Higginson, Michael Cuddyer or Rondell White. That’s baseball-reference’s job.
Okay, no Ethier. When did Scott Van Slyke become an ex-parrot? Now, him and the Logo in a 4-man rotation out there, we’d be talking some serious talent going to LA.
BABVA,
Dr D
……….
We ain’t going to be in this old-school castle much longer. Benihana’s freaky new prototype lab will be found at Detect-O-Vision.com.
Detect O Vision Mainframe 
Well, UZR/150 has never hated him for his glove, and over ~1000 innings in 2013 and 2014, he actually played a passable (-2.5 runs/150 games) CF. That was in LA, so it’s not like he was playing in front of the Fenway Green Monster equivalent of CF (what would that be, anyway? Arlington? Baltimore? GAB?)
Just from that, and his pedigree, I’d probably be ok with a flier on him as a starting COF who could slide over late in games if we need to pinch hit for one of the other COF’s/1B. With LAD picking up half the salary, that would be ~$9mil/year he would cost us. Even at last year’s pace, the Fangraphs WAR formula would, over 500 AB’s, make him worth about 1 WAR. So just a smidge of regression toward his career averages would result in a fairly paid player. And like you said, if he can get that mid-.300’s OBP back, he’s an important piece of the lineup.
Yeah, I’d go for him if it doesn’t cost us anything other than a redundant bullpen arm.
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Meant to say ‘-3.5runs/150 games) CF…’
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Uneditable posts? Find an admin who cares, why don’cha …. Disqus it with him. …
Good point on Ethier in CF. Per John Dewan, the last two years Ethier has been -7 *plays* in center; in Safeco, that becomes a positive number. His SX last year was 120. His fan rating is 45-50’ish.
Ethier might conceivably kick the can another year or two down the road, as to the M’s utter paucity of CF’s. Certainly he’d remove the need for a 2015 bench player specialized to CF, such as James Jones.
Not that Ethier’s my guy. But if it’s him or Viciedo, and LA is buying the sody pop… well, Ethier *is* a natural 2 hitter.
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He’s a COF who can still cover CF, kinda. AT $9M per he would be affordable. His real value is in platoon. I didn’t realize how much so but he’s a pretty great hitter vR and a pretty dismal hitter vL. .304-.383-.506 over his career vs the one and .235-.294-.348 vs. the other. (his ’13 #’s were in that ballpark, btw.) Using him in that way gives him the natural rest his legs may like. I’m convinced that Van Slyke stays in LA now….last year was the year to grab him. Finding a RHB/COF isn’t that hard, however…….We may have a couple right at home. If LA will give us a significant subsidy, he’s no riskier than Cruz, and hitting in the 2-hole, vR, he’s a potent weapon. His biggest downside is that his presence may get in the way of young bats in a year or two.
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Hadn’t noticed his platoon splits Mo. … that was the very issue in LA, the full-time job … but if you guarantee him a *predictable* role and 450-500 AB’s, may be.
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I’m not crazy about Ethier. He doesn’t solve our handedness problem, or our OF power problem. He is an adequate back-up CF but no more. The Dodgers played Puig in CF ahead of him and Puig is not a CF. Ethier is a somewhat old-fashioned kind of defender – does everything ok, average speed, average arm, runs good routes, fundamentally sound. He’s been a platoon hitter – or shoulda been – for three years. On the other hand, yes, if it’s him or Viciendo, I take him. My preference over either would be to play the kids.
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Thanks for the view from LA amigo.
Go with Mr. Pulitzer there, kiddies.
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I don’t agree with the Mariner’s contention that there is a ‘handedness’ problem. Honestly with Jackson, Cruz, Zunino, Taylor and Bloomquist you’ve got enough right handed hitters to balance out a line-up. A good hitting RF, with plus on-base ability, who can hit second or platoon their with Miller… now you’re talking.
I also think that SafeCo still depresses right handed hitters more so than lefties.
Either way, the Ethier way may be the other way to go.
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Ya, I think they overstated and overreacted to their 2013 woes — the LOOGY’s gave them nightmares — but Cruz attended to the bulk of that. Never mind that Austin Jackson should be an average/solid hitter, not a 60 OPS+ hitter.
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Ethier’s a guy I wanted before he signed his contract extension. Very steady hitter, would do well with some days off at DH, a decent defender, injury issues (now getting worse), very bad against same-handed pitching (like, worse than Shin-soo Choo). I didn’t want to pay him $18 mil a year as a platoon bat, but nobody else was gonna pay him that either. He got lucky playing in LA. So be it.
Ethier has 3 years left on his deal, for 56 million if the Dodgers kick in nothing.
vs RHP: .305/ .385/ .505 / .890
vs LHP: hahahaha… 640 OPS career
How much do the Dodgers have to pay down to make it worth it with Ethier’s leg issues, age and platoon requirements?
I mean, Seth Smith is 2 years, 13 million with a 7 million option for year three. He’s .275/ .360/ .480/ .840 vs righties, .605 OPS vs lefties. Last year in San Diego, he OPSed .815 against righties so it’s not just a Coors thing. He’s 6 months younger than Ethier, and if you’re looking for a bridge to Kivlehan / DJ /Wilson / Alex Jackson, that’s not a bad one. Seth Smith with a right-handed platoon mate is a Billy Beane move.
If we’re looking for three years of an available star, Carlos Gonzalez is 2.5 years younger than Ethier, has practically the same contract remaining (3 years, 53 million) and similarly kills RHP while not being as bad a platoon need as Ethier, and can still play acceptable defense himself. Problem is knowing what he translates to outside of Coors, but if you’re betting on an injury rebound, Cargo isn’t a terrible bet either with more upside and a better age curve. But then, people have been saying “any year now, he’s gonna stop hitting” about Ethier basically since he got into the league, and (except for last year’s injury-based performance drop) it’s never happened.
I dunno. I don’t think the Dodgers are willing to eat as much on Ethier as we might wish. Ethier at 3/30 doesn’t sound bad. Then he’s Seth-Smith prices for a guy who had a higher ceiling of performance in the past. I don’t see that happening, but I’d take it if it did.
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I didn’t think Ethier would hold up well to specific comps (Smith, CarGo) and your post doesn’t do much to restore my confidence.
Still, if LA is paying him down to $8M per year, and you sweet-talk Ethier into a *predictable* role …
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Gordon, do you go with Ethier / Smith over a simple Brad Miller platoon in RF? The kid had pretty good numbers in the 2H last year.
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Short answer: I’d go get Upton and Gattis and win a pennant, trading them a bat instead of an arm. It’d probably take DJ, but I believe in Kivlehan, Wilson, O’Neill and Alex Jackson enough to do that. If it cost Guerrero + Diaz, that’d be even better.
If it’s just a matter of adding Seth Smith, I’d do that too. I believe we’re still a bat short, especially on a team with young players that seem to start slow / regress / never hit their potential (Seager excepted). We can’t afford for Miller to pull an Almonte or Taylor to pull a Romero and have no options. We can’t ride out an early-year deadspot without enough bats to carry water. So give me either Smith + a RH bat if we’re goin’ the As route, or Upton and Gattis via trade.
The 2001 Ms had THREE deadspots for the first month or two of the season, but it didn’t matter because of the flood overflowing the dam elsewhere. I want that.
And that’s the short answer. 😉
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I have been thinking the same with all our corner RH power, moving 1 or 2 now to get 1 or 2 for this year shouldn’t slow them down too much. I think it was mlb.coms prospect ranking I perused that had 6 of the top 7 Ms prospects as RH power/corner guys, with some depth lower. I’m not saying that’s definitive, just an example of the idea that that has become the MiL strength at this point.
2001 had one thing we don’t have and don’t seem to be looking for, Ichiro. A .381 OBP atop the lineup sure would be nice. 56 Sb? Well, I don’t think that guy exists right now anyway. Just saying I think it’s up there that needs upgraded. Well, .381 OBP is exactly Canos total the last 3 years. If you can’t get Trout or McCutchen, the next highest OBP with over 50 SB in that span is…Nori Aoki at .353 with 67 SB. Hard to approach the .360 team OBP in ’01 when everyone is focused on power. Not that it’s really approachable right now anyway.
Can someone explain Smith to me? All I see is a year in SD that he hit, preceded by 2 in Oakland that even his vs RH don’t seem much worth building a platoon around. His last taste of the AL he had a .328 wOBA vsR, 102nd among players with 300+ AB. The year before, at 29, he was 82nd. Our RH CF was significantly above him both of those years. RH Allen Craig was too. Nori Aoki, with reverse splits, was. His defense may be a bit above average but he hasn’t seen CF in over 6 years. Are there factors I’ve just not heard of that have people buying his age 31 career year as a breakout? Otherwise he looks like a 1.3 win player (below average) who has already largely been platooned. 4/5 of his career PA are vsR. Am I wrong to expect offense more like he put up in Oakland in 13 than San Diego in 14 if he came here?
You want a platoon COF, Doc already PoTD’d a guy who’s splits make sense to me. He didn’t put any of them up in Coors either. All .304/.383/.506 vsR while making his home in a west coast marine layer park. Andre Ethier. I’d rather build a platoon around him at twice the price, if that’s where it came in. For him it’s one down year in 14 and the rest great. For Smith it seems nearly the opposite to me. What am I missing?
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I appear lost. This is the Ethier post and those splits were already put up. Slightly different #s though, mine from B-ref. I’ll remind myself to read back before posting next time.
And rereading that now, you said that’s a Beane move but he already tried it and it didn’t really work for him the way people seem to think it would here. I love his MiL line and if it was just that guy right there I’d buy but I don’t think his MLB track is among the best available to the M’s now. It’s there thought that he’s a very late blooming lefty? Otherwise I can’t figure it.
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Z traded the farm for Upton once before and I will do it again (well, not the farm this time, just the south forty). Atlanta will shop around, try to make us sweat, but in the end, they’ll come to us, because we can give them the best deal. Plus, they owe us for Soriano and O’Flaherty. Well, OK, the latter was a waiver signing, but still…they owe us.
This is Atlanta’s opportunity to reverse the Teixeira deal they made with Texas a while back. They gave up a lot of good stuff (a haul that eventually netted a front line closer, starting pitcher, catcher, and shortstop) for half a season of a stud first baseman. I’m not sure, but between Andrus, Feliz, Harrison and Saltalamaccia we are talking 4 guys who made the All star team at some point, or should have anyway. We are probably the only team that can offer something similar.
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Really! :- )
That post is food for thought amigo. Byte sized. Will watch for a little Twitter smoke, implying the smoldering little fire you envision …
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